
\begin{table}
\caption{Bayesian Logistic Regression on the Post-conflict Involvement (Types of Involvement)}
\begin{center}
\scalebox{1}{
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c }
\hline
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline
Intercept                                      & $-8.230^{**}$    & $-10.459^{***}$  & $-8.862^{**}$   & $-11.122^{***}$  & $-9.261^{***}$   \\
                                               & $(2.664)$        & $(2.671)$        & $(2.767)$       & $(2.401)$        & $(2.410)$        \\
TP Neighbouring                                & $3.876^{***}$    & $4.055^{***}$    & $3.607^{***}$   &                  &                  \\
                                               & $(0.294)$        & $(0.328)$        & $(0.315)$       &                  &                  \\
TP Wartime Peacekeeping(count)                 & $2.866^{***}$    &                  &                 &                  &                  \\
                                               & $(0.700)$        &                  &                 &                  &                  \\
TP Neighbouring*TP Wartime Peacekeeping(count) & $-2.138$         &                  &                 &                  &                  \\
                                               & $(1.533)$        &                  &                 &                  &                  \\
TP Polity2                                     & $0.036$          & $0.036$          & $0.034$         &                  &                  \\
                                               & $(0.022)$        & $(0.022)$        & $(0.022)$       &                  &                  \\
TP Aid                                         & $2.068^{***}$    & $2.159^{***}$    & $2.066^{***}$   &                  &                  \\
                                               & $(0.324)$        & $(0.329)$        & $(0.325)$       &                  &                  \\
TP Arms Transfer                               & $3.379^{***}$    & $3.477^{***}$    & $3.539^{***}$   &                  &                  \\
                                               & $(0.405)$        & $(0.412)$        & $(0.411)$       &                  &                  \\
Postwar MIC(decay)                             & $0.515^{***}$    & $0.403^{***}$    & $0.400^{***}$   & $0.397^{***}$    & $0.396^{***}$    \\
                                               & $(0.045)$        & $(0.050)$        & $(0.050)$       & $(0.041)$        & $(0.040)$        \\
Conflict Duration (log)                        & $0.061$          & $0.032$          & $0.132^{*}$     & $-0.010$         & $0.048$          \\
                                               & $(0.052)$        & $(0.055)$        & $(0.060)$       & $(0.047)$        & $(0.047)$        \\
Polity2                                        & $-0.047^{\cdot}$ & $-0.040$         & $-0.041$        & $-0.054^{*}$     & $-0.053^{*}$     \\
                                               & $(0.027)$        & $(0.028)$        & $(0.028)$       & $(0.024)$        & $(0.023)$        \\
Count of Postwar Violence                      & $0.049$          & $0.033$          & $0.061$         & $0.037$          & $0.059$          \\
                                               & $(0.061)$        & $(0.075)$        & $(0.054)$       & $(0.065)$        & $(0.050)$        \\
GDP per Capita (log)                           & $-0.627^{**}$    & $-0.464^{*}$     & $-0.486^{*}$    & $-0.163$         & $-0.206$         \\
                                               & $(0.240)$        & $(0.234)$        & $(0.237)$       & $(0.205)$        & $(0.208)$        \\
Population (log)                               & $0.161$          & $0.238$          & $0.141$         & $0.290^{*}$      & $0.186$          \\
                                               & $(0.142)$        & $(0.147)$        & $(0.150)$       & $(0.126)$        & $(0.123)$        \\
Ceasefire                                      & $0.151$          & $0.045$          & $-0.616$        & $-0.181$         & $-0.666$         \\
                                               & $(0.448)$        & $(0.451)$        & $(0.524)$       & $(0.424)$        & $(0.469)$        \\
Government Victory                             & $-2.164$         & $-2.436^{\cdot}$ & $-2.178$        & $-2.749^{\cdot}$ & $-2.667^{\cdot}$ \\
                                               & $(1.463)$        & $(1.478)$        & $(1.472)$       & $(1.481)$        & $(1.472)$        \\
Rebel Victory                                  & $0.832^{*}$      & $1.325^{**}$     & $0.700^{\cdot}$ & $1.503^{***}$    & $0.965^{**}$     \\
                                               & $(0.386)$        & $(0.404)$        & $(0.393)$       & $(0.347)$        & $(0.324)$        \\
Low Activity                                   & $-0.075$         & $-0.160$         & $-0.161$        & $-0.142$         & $-0.161$         \\
                                               & $(0.268)$        & $(0.279)$        & $(0.273)$       & $(0.249)$        & $(0.241)$        \\
Peace Months                                   & $-0.032$         & $-0.049$         & $-0.078$        & $-0.033$         & $-0.070$         \\
                                               & $(0.065)$        & $(0.066)$        & $(0.069)$       & $(0.060)$        & $(0.063)$        \\
Peace Months$^2$                               & $0.003$          & $0.004$          & $0.008$         & $0.003$          & $0.007$          \\
                                               & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$       & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$        \\
Peace Months$^3$                               & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$        & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$         \\
                                               & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$       & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$        \\
TP Wartime Mediation (count)                   &                  & $0.913^{***}$    &                 & $0.773^{***}$    &                  \\
                                               &                  & $(0.131)$        &                 & $(0.099)$        &                  \\
TP Neighbouring*TP Wartime mediation(count)    &                  & $-0.237$         &                 &                  &                  \\
                                               &                  & $(0.179)$        &                 &                  &                  \\
TP Wartime Good office(count)                  &                  &                  & $1.092^{**}$    &                  & $1.410^{***}$    \\
                                               &                  &                  & $(0.393)$       &                  & $(0.241)$        \\
TP Neighbouring*TP Wartime Good Office(count)  &                  &                  & $1.142^{*}$     &                  &                  \\
                                               &                  &                  & $(0.451)$       &                  &                  \\
Non-state TP(=1)                               &                  &                  &                 & $0.066$          & $0.045$          \\
                                               &                  &                  &                 & $(0.219)$        & $(0.216)$        \\
Non-state TP(=1)*TP Wartime Mediation(count)   &                  &                  &                 & $-0.282$         &                  \\
                                               &                  &                  &                 & $(0.197)$        &                  \\
Non-state TP(=1)*TP Wartime Good Office(count) &                  &                  &                 &                  & $-0.608$         \\
                                               &                  &                  &                 &                  & $(0.448)$        \\
\hline
AIC                                            & 1110.502         & 1075.887         & 1078.622        & 1843.405         & 1859.902         \\
BIC                                            & 1293.351         & 1258.736         & 1261.471        & 2006.719         & 2023.215         \\
Log Likelihood                                 & -535.251         & -517.943         & -519.311        & -904.703         & -912.951         \\
Deviance                                       & 1070.502         & 1035.887         & 1038.622        & 1809.405         & 1825.902         \\
Num. obs.                                      & 69041            & 69041            & 69041           & 109826           & 109826           \\
\hline
\multicolumn{6}{l}{\scriptsize{$^{***}p<0.001$, $^{**}p<0.01$, $^*p<0.05$, $^{\cdot}p<0.1$}}
\end{tabular}
}
\label{bayestab3}
\end{center}
\end{table}
